Two years ago I started drafting a manuscript where I am providing a sociopolitical analysis of Venezuela’s recent history. My idea for it is to serve as a guide to learn how such a rich and promising country as Venezuela wasted every opportunity to become a global leading superpower, and instead fell on the path of turning into a collapsed failed state. It would be great if one day I can share my writings, however at the present time I do not know exactly what will come out of them. I would like to share some of what I have written so far, but I do not have a cohesive narrative yet, especially in the political aspect of the country, which has been in the eyes and ears of the world. In the meantime, I want my readers to catch a glimpse on the high expectations Venezuelans have set on this new year 2016, and the reasons why these expectations are so high.
After the recent trounce of the socialist government in Venezuela in the National Assembly elections, several of my friends living in the US and in Europe have asked me -since I am currently living in Venezuela- about the repercussions and implications the astounding results have for 2016, given the severe crisis the country has been for the past ten years. Some have referred to the elections results as a devastating night, while others call it “the first ray of light”, I call it “the greatest test in the country’s history.”
To understand politics in Venezuela, one must understand basic politics in other democracies and add a little tweaks here and there. School teaches us that in most democracies, governments have three branches of power: executive, legislative and judicial, with the logic that their powers can cancel out one another, kind of like rock-paper-scissors. Having that said, in order to understand the situation in Venezuela we have to build a bit of context.
Most historians agree that while General Marcos Perez Jimenez -who governed Venezuela from 1952 to 1958- was a dictator, he was on track to establish Venezuela as a developed world leading superpower, had he remained in office. Since his deposing, Venezuela entered a 40-year period in which the two most important parties (Accion Democratica / Democratic Action and Partido Socialcristiano COPEI / Social Christian Party COPEI) had close to an equal split on all three government branches of power, with other minor parties skimming a very minimal role. During this era, Venezuela began a gradual, slow but steady decline from Perez Jimenez’s progress path. As years went by, it appeared that the country was heading towards becoming an underdeveloped country, instead of the world super power Perez Jimenez had envisioned. Key signs such as an economy mauled by inflation and currency devaluation only kept getting worse as time went by. This economical downfall was backed up by countless cases of sociopolitical corruption and a failed judicial system.
By 1998 Venezuelans were fed up with the traditional political parties, and that’s when Chavez rose to power, winning an election by captivating the population with promises to slay the political system that had been deceiving the people for almost 40 years. Disappointed as they were, Venezuelans voted in consecutive three elections in 1998, 1999 and 2000 to legally handover complete power of all branches of the government to Chavez’s socialist political party. As he settled as leader of Venezuela’s new governmental model, Chavez created two more branches, which he called the electoral branch, and the moral branch, and accordingly filled them with socialist party members. From that point and on for over fifteen years, AD and COPEI were diminished to almost their complete irradication.
But then something unexpected happen: in 2013 Chavez fell ill and when his death became imminent, named Nicolas Maduro -one of his closest proteges- as his successor. After Chavez passed away Maduro assumed the presidency, and sent Venezuela through the worst crisis imaginable in the country in its history. Some of the most well-known aspects are:
- Shortage of products, including basic products (food, health, hygiene), which has generated countless (and useless) regulation controls to access the few available products, at ridiculous prices.
- Hyperinflation, at numbers so high (roughly around 700%), that Venezuela’s Central Bank stopped releasing any economic indicators or data.
- Currency exchange control with four different prices to obtain US Dollars, with none of them being easily accessible by the population, opening the door for a black market where the US Dollar holds an ask price over 1,000% above the government’s official exchange rate.
- Insecurity and crime rates soaring at numbers so high, that the Department of State and Justice -similar to the Central Bank- also no longer releases crime data indicators.
This whole mess reached a boiling point on December 6 last year, where parliament elections were held, and Venezuelans voted in 112 seats of 165 possible to a coalition formed by the all the opposition parties to the government. It was the first time in sixteen years in which Chavez’s socialist party lost control and power in a government branch, and the coalition of opposition parties against previously Chavez and now Maduro were able to obtain a significant and meaningful lead in Venezuela’s political scene, which is a feat that had seemed impossible for the past fifteen years.
This radical shift of power is basically the same story that had previously occurred and that allowed Chavez win 1998 and subsequent elections, the only difference being that back then there were no shortages and Venezuela was not living under hyperinflation economic indicators. There was a currency exchange control, but it wasn’t as bad as the current one; and crime had always been an issue in Caracas since the 1980s. My point is that the same impulsive feeling that made people vote for “something different” back then, is the same one that ocurred recently in December. You may note that I wrote “something different“; I didn’t write “something new.”
Some analysts call this impulse “punishing-vote” (as in, one candidate gets punished by the other option because there is no other choice). Finding where will this “punishing-vote” lead Venezuela next is Henry Ramos Allup’s main responsibility. Ramos -a leading opposition lawyer who now is the new president of the National Assembly- has been a long time AD deputy. He is well respected and well educated in Venezuela’s law and politics. Some people refer to him as a “good ol’ fox” due to his quick wit. Others consider him “old-school”, “more of the same” and other similar qualifications.
The next months will be crucial, and the margin of error for the opposition is minimum, due to the desperate situation the population lives on a daily basis. Most of the country’s key productive population (recent graduates, young executives) have only one thing in their minds: migration. This means that the more capable force of the population is deserting the country and leaving the inexperienced and unqualified people in charge of running the day-to-day of Venezuela. Therefore, the opposition collition has yet to lay down a plan of what urgent measures will be needed to reactivate the country’s economy, and improve the quality of life of Venezuelans. Additionally, there are censorship issues, political prisoners, and so on. I myself am completely convinced the country right now needs three things:
1) Dismantle the currency exchange control system.
History has been proven, not once, not twice, but three times in Venezuela (as well as in other countries), that currency exchange controls simply do not work. It doesn’t matter if it’s a band system (Great British Pound 1992), or a fixed system (Zimbabwe). Supresing and afixiating the flow of supply and demand for foreign currency, does nothing good to the economy of the country. Venezuela’s currency exchange system must be dismantled. The sooner the better.
2) Reactivate local production and distribution of goods.
When you have a country that produces trillions of dollars in industries as broad as electronics, technology and shipyards, supporting an economy so diverse you don’t know where to build your next artificial island, then you can consider importing as a necessity or even a luxury. Otherwise, you economies should incentive local production of goods. Currently there is simply not enough for the country’s population. Imports -which currently are the only option- should be the alternative and never the primary source of goods, especially if there is a currency exchange system that blocks imports. Goods must be brought to the people locally, by whichever means necessary.
3) Develop a true anti-crime force.
Few things in life are as demoralizing as knowing that you have to leave from wherever place you are, because you are afraid you might be assaulted, attacked, robbed or raped. Despite having local, municipal, state and national police forces, none of them have been proven to be effective against the absolute stronghold that organized and unorganized crime has in the city. Venezuelans must have the right to feel safe in their own land.
The population’s frustration with Maduro’s government may lead to other potential objectives the newly opposition-led Assembly can set their minds into, such as impeaching Maduro or even having him removed from office. However, I believe, there is no better marketing to remove someone from office, than having your own results speak for yourself to prove how qualified you are to do a better job than someone else who currently isn’t. Anything unnecessary, unneeded, or uncalled objective, is and will be a deviation of what the real task on hand is and must be. Moreover, it will be judged as a waste of time and a waste of trust the Venezuelans placed in the new Assembly.
And that is why the opposition must make the best out of this opportunity that has been handed to them.
HR
